🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the player he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.